Time is the best argument
Blockchain comes out of the shadows
People who are skeptical about blockchain-based technologies often associate it with cryptocurrencies do not particularly delve into the various levels of application of decentralized networks.
The cyclical excitement and recession with digital tokens and coins, the disappointment of some non-professional investors - all this leads to thoughts about the futility of the blockchain.
Today it is safe to say that the existing ecosystem built on cryptography and distribution is not a pyramid scheme and has grown into an established infrastructure.
The bullish rally in digital assets, which began at the end of 2020, with an active growth phase until mid-May, and the recovery of quotes in August after a correction are actual evidence of a stable trend and the adoption of decentralized finance by the world community.
To assess the progress of the implementation and proliferation of blockchain tools, let's look back in time and trace the entire evolution of collective opinion.
Blockchain is already perceived as a technology of the future, with which everything will be open and transparent. And there are already a significant number of working examples of its use.
In February 2020, MIT Technology Review magazine offered its list of 10 technologies that will change the future in the coming years. On the 3rd place is digital money, which provides an exchange without intermediaries and large commissions.
Retrospective
The analysis will be carried out on the basis of the explication of the trends that exist in the market of distributed ledger systems from 2014 to early 2020.
The data were revealed using analytical and information sources for monitoring trends (decision-making in strategic planning, innovative development, creating new products, choosing investment priorities or scientific research).
Databases accumulated over several years serve as resources for research, which allow for a multilateral analysis of directions. The study is based on the analysis of the frequency of references to the direction of technological development or its scope for a wide range of data sources that characterize different stages of the trend life cycle.
2017
The interest in cryptocurrencies associated with the explosive growth in the value of bitcoin in 2017-2018 was not due to the complex development and implementation of the technology.
A typical technology development scenario usually looks like this: first, the growth of scientific publications, then the growth of patenting and, as a consequence, an increase in investment.
Everything happened differently with the blockchain - until 2017, no more than 300 scientific articles were published per year. And in the same year, investment in blockchain startups grew more than 5 times from the previous year, to $ 4.9 billion.
At the same time, 48% of investments went to projects involved in the exchange, circulation and mining of cryptocurrencies. The main attention was focused on the use of blockchain not for digitalization of various industries, but for speculative trading in a new, potentially highly profitable financial instrument here and now.
Speculators fueled interest in cryptocurrency, which was followed by a surge of interest in the scientific and inventive community.
2018–2019
In 2018, the share of patents not directly related to cryptocurrency exceeded 85% for the first time. The invention community has also focused on systematically adopting blockchain technology and taking advantage of all aspects of it.
Investments in companies that develop projects in the field of blockchain, but are not directly related to circulation, exchange and investment in cryptocurrency, decreased by 75% in 2019 compared to the same indicator in 2018 ($ 2.4 billion).
The share of investments in technology projects related to cryptocurrency has been declining, and by 2019 it reached 32%; the start of implementation (2014–2015), this figure was 68%.
2020
The outflow of investors who played on the change in the value of the cryptocurrency did not stop the process of raising funds for projects aimed at introducing blockchain in various fields, including those not related to arbitrage cryptocurrency trading. Large-scale commercial implementations will begin in 2022–2023.
Recently, the interest of the scientific community in the application of distributed networks in cyber-physical systems (Internet of Things) has increased, it is expected that this will lead to an increase in investment in projects at the intersection of blockchain and Web 3.0 in the near future.
2021
Analysis of scientific articles, patents, investments, publications in the media based on monitoring trends shows that promising areas for investment are:
- cross-industrial open platforms for interoperability of IoT devices, ensuring the security of devices and transactions.
- projects based on a pay-as-you-go model. Blockchain and smart contracts will automate billing and payment processes, this will save additional resources for suppliers and users of machines and devices.
- systems for monetizing data from IoT devices. Digital contracts implement an automated and secure sale of accumulated information without human intervention in the process. The quality of the data will be assessed by consumers through a feedback system and data quality ratings.
